Outperform the S&P 500 by owning the companies that make the most cash.
Twice a year the 500 largest US companies are ranked on the cash they generate. The books hold 6, 12 or 20 of the highest-ranked, each kept while it stays near the top. Concentrated and Balanced also put 60% and 30% of the money in a fund that returns twice the S&P 500's daily move, held only while the index is above its moving average.
Growth on money invested at the start, dividends included, net of trading costs, against the S&P 500 Total Return. The fund in this book is modelled from the index, with its costs. A backtest is not a live account. How this is calculated.
These four cover Concentrated over the 25 years to 31 July 2026; the full record runs from 1998 and is on the method page. Backtested on point-in-time filings, dividends included, net of trading costs, against the S&P 500 Total Return, with 60% of the money in a modelled 2x index fund while its trend rule is on. The worst fall is measured on the half-yearly marks; marked at month-ends, the deepest fall in the full record was -43%. Past performance does not predict future results.
What arrives, and what keeps arriving
A new book each January and July, in three parts: which companies to hold, how much of each, and how many whole shares your money buys — with, in the two books that hold it, how much to put in the fund. Below is Balanced as it stands today, with the company names hidden.
The 12 companies this book holds, with their sectors, and the 2x S&P 500 fund it holds while the trend rule is on. The 250 at the bottom of the same ranking are published in full, names and all.
How much of the book each position is. The companies share 70.0% of it equally — 5.8% each — and the fund holds the other 30.0% while the trend rule is on. With the rule off, the fund's share goes into the companies.
Whole shares, worked from the latest closing prices to the amount you enter, and refreshed daily. Nothing rounds to a fraction no broker will sell. The fund is the exception: it is given as an amount of money — 30% of what you enter while the trend rule is on — because no share price for it is published here.
Every company re-ranked on the latest filings; those that have slipped too far are replaced, on average 5 of 12. Every weight is reset, and the trend rule decides whether the fund is held.
If a holding is bought, delisted or stops reporting, its replacement arrives with the trade to make.
The second reset. Even where the names hold, six months of price moves have pulled the weights off.
The same watch on the holdings, and the book left alone until January.
The companies behind the record
The businesses the screen has held across 57 half-yearly periods since 1998. The companies in the book right now are withheld; the ones it has held in the past are not.
Periods counts the half-years each company was held, out of 57. Avg return is the mean six-month return over those periods only, not over all 57. Up is how often it rose while held.
The eight most-held of 96 companies this book has held at some point, leaving out every company in the current books — a book that keeps its holdings for years would otherwise publish itself here. Companies that later went bust or were bought out are counted in the record too, so the returns above are not just the survivors.
Eight of the 57 half-years in the record, each the whole book, fund included, after costs. Across all 57 the book finished ahead in 42 of them and behind in 15. It was ahead more often than behind, and by more when it was. An average half-year ahead was 7.08% clear of the index; an average half-year behind was 3.47% short of it. Compounded since 1998 that gap is the whole gap.
The 250 companies we will not own
The weakest companies on cash generation trailed the rest by about four points a year, in the first half of the record and again in the second. No book holds them — though the fund in two of the books follows the whole S&P 500, the members of this list included. The list is published in full, free, with no account. Check it against what you already hold.
151 trading strategies, tested the same way
Each one was specified on 1998–2014, then measured once on the eleven years set aside before any of it started. Thirteen survived that test. Three of them shape the companies in the portfolios below. The fund in two of the books, and the trend rule that decides when it is held, did not go through that test: they were chosen later, with the whole record in view.
Reported profit depends on judgement calls — when a sale is booked, how quickly an asset is written down. Cash actually collected does not. Of 108 measures tested, cash generation was the strongest.
The weakest companies on cash trailed the rest by about four points a year, and by a similar margin in each half of the record. Selecting winners was markedly less reliable, so the method removes 250 companies.
Rebalancing more often did not improve the result and did cost more. The only thing that moves the book in between is a takeover or a failure.
Most of these are other people's published research. A strategy that fails here failed on this universe, over this window, under our reading of its rules — which is a statement about the test, not about the original paper.
Portfolios and pricing
Over the last ten years all three beat the S&P 500 Total Return: 22.88%, 18.26% and 16.87% a year against 15.68%, 6.0 points apart. The deepest fall, on the half-yearly marks, ranged from -15% to -16%. What the setting really chooses is leverage, and how many companies share the rest: 60% of Concentrated in the 2x fund and 6 companies; 30% of Balanced in the 2x fund and 12 companies; no fund and 20 companies in Broad. The fund is held only while its trend rule is on.
Ahead of the index in 42 of 57 half-years — about three times in four. When it was ahead, by an average of 7.1 points; when it was behind, by 3.5.
Ahead of the index in 39 of 57 half-years — about two times in three. When it was ahead, by an average of 7.3 points; when it was behind, by 3.2.
Ahead of the index in 37 of 57 half-years — about two times in three. When it was ahead, by an average of 6.2 points; when it was behind, by 3.4.
Ten years to 2026, net of trading costs and of the fund's modelled costs, against the S&P 500 Total Return; worst falls on the half-yearly marks. Over the full record since 1998: 18.00%, 17.23% and 15.20% a year, with volatility of 18%, 18% and 16%. The full record for each is on its own page. Switching between settings is free and the price does not change.
Size a position before subscribing
Put in what you have to invest and how much of a fall you could sit through. It picks the setting by how much leverage it carries — the three books' worst recorded falls are within 1.4 points of each other, so leverage is what separates them — shows the range of five-year results that setting actually produced, and tells you whether your amount is enough to buy the book in whole shares — which is what decides whether any of this is practical for you.
Eight in ten of the 48 overlapping five-year stretches fell in that range. The worst ran at -0.79% a year for five years. This is a record, not a forecast, and the next five years may fall outside it.
Every company rounds to at least one share and the fund is an amount, with about 0.10% left as change.
after 20 years at the full-record rate, against $161,259 in the index, with the €19 a month taken out of the portfolio annually.
The things you are right to ask
What exactly arrives, and when?
A reset book in January and July: the list, the weight of every position, and an order list in whole shares for a stated amount — in the two books that hold the fund, with the amount to put in it, or a note that the trend rule has it out. In between, a note whenever a holding is taken over, delisted or stops filing, with the replacement and the order to make the swap.
Why keep paying between resets?
Two resets a year is the visible part. The rest is the watch: across the record, holdings were taken over or ceased trading often enough that a book left untouched for a year drifts away from the method it was built on. A lapsed subscription also means the next reset does not arrive, leaving a snapshot of a ranking that has since moved.
Do I need to create an account?
No. Card details go to the payment processor at signup, never to this site, and there is no password to set. A link arrives by email and opens the book; it works on any device and a fresh one can be sent whenever it is needed.
Is this financial advice?
No. Every subscriber receives the identical list, and nothing is assessed against any individual's circumstances, objectives or tax position. It is general investment research published to a fixed method, with the disclosures required under EU market-abuse rules on every page.
Why not simply buy an index tracker?
A tracker costs almost nothing — roughly €7 a year on €10,000 — and in exchange it owns the weakest half of the market alongside the strongest. This ranks the same 500 companies on the cash they generate and holds 6, 12 or 20 of the highest-ranked. Two of the books also hold a fund that returns twice the index's daily move while its trend rule is on — more of the market, not less. The cost is two sets of orders a year and a subscription. Whether that trade is worth it is the question, and a tracker is a perfectly sound answer.
Why is the trial seven days when the book only changes twice a year?
The trial is for inspecting what arrives, not for watching it perform. Seven days is enough to read the whole book, check the weights and run the order list against what you already own. Thirty days would show you nothing extra: the book you see stays valid until the next reset in January or July.
How much trading does this involve?
Two sittings a year. There is no daily signal and nothing to monitor. Trading costs are already deducted from every figure published here, at 0.2% of the part of the book that changes hands, money moved between the companies and the fund included. The fund's own running and borrowing costs are inside its modelled return.
What if the amount available is small?
The calculator above answers it for any amount. At current prices every book can be bought in whole shares from about $5,000; below that the smaller positions stop rounding to a single share, and what remains is a partial version of the book that will not track the published record exactly. The calculator says so when that happens.
These are US shares. What about currency and tax?
The companies are US-listed and priced in dollars, so a return measured in your own currency also carries the exchange rate movement. US withholding tax on their dividends applies and is reduced by treaty for most EU residents once a W-8BEN is on file with the broker. The fund in two of the books is a UCITS exchange-traded fund listed in Europe: leveraged funds are taxed differently from shares in some countries, and for a US person a UCITS fund is a PFIC, which is why the order list names a US-listed alternative. Tax treatment is a matter for an individual's own adviser and nothing here accounts for it.
What happens on cancelling?
Cancelling inside the first seven days charges nothing. Afterwards the subscription runs to the end of the paid month and the book already delivered stays readable. No further resets arrive.
What if the method stops working?
It may. When academics re-test a published market edge on fresh data, about a quarter of the advantage disappears, and more than half of it goes once the finding has circulated widely and others trade on it. That is why eleven years were set aside here and examined once for the screen. The book sizes and the fund were chosen later, with those years in view, so they have no untouched test of their own — the method page says what that means.
Who produces this?
The producer is Purple Turtle, the publishing name for research produced in a personal capacity in Denmark by Christian Mortensen, Pakhusgården 28, 5000 Odense, Denmark. That is stated in full on the terms page and linked from every disclosure block, because EU market-abuse rules require the producer of research to be identified when it is published and not at the point something is sold. Not authorised or supervised by Finanstilsynet: general research published identically to every reader does not require it. The producer does not currently hold the published portfolios; any position taken in a covered company will be disclosed with the ranking it concerns.
Seven days, then €19 a month.
The list, the weights and the order list, unlocked in place. Cancelled inside seven days, nothing is charged.
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